A new report from Porch.com looked at U.S. counties and analyzed which ones are to experience the hottest weather by the year 2080. In the absence of a significant curb in greenhouse gas emissions, data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) shows that some parts of the U.S. will spend over 60% of the year with temperatures above 90℉ by then.
Some parts of the U.S. already have a high number of extremely hot days every year, but even places with a more mild climate could see a significant increase in extreme temperature events. Researchers ranked counties according to the projected number of days per year with a temperature of 90℉ or higher for the year 2080.
In addition to a rise in mean global temperatures, climate change will continue to bring more unusually hot summer days. In the U.S., mean maximum temperatures have increased by several degrees since the late 1800s. More common extreme summer heatwaves will make living in some parts of the country more uncomfortable and dangerous. Heat can worsen droughts, and hot, dry conditions will increase wildfire risk. Human health will also be impacted as heat-related illnesses become more prevalent.
Some parts of the U.S. already have a high number of extremely hot days every year, but even places with a more mild climate could see a significant increase in extreme temperature events. To find the counties projected to experience the hottest weather, researchers at Porch analyzed data from the USGS and NOAA. Researchers calculated the projected number of days per year with a temperature of 90℉ or higher for the year 2080, the historical number of days per year with a temperature of 90℉ or higher, and the historical average summer maximum and minimum temperatures. The projections assume the IPCC’s high emissions scenario (A2).
To improve relevance, only counties with at least 200,000 people were included in the analysis. Additionally, counties were grouped into the following cohorts based on population size:
- Small counties: 200,000–349,999
- Midsize counties: 350,000–749,999
- Large counties: 750,000 or more
Here are the large counties projected to experience the hottest weather:
|County||Rank||Projected number of days per year w/ temp above 90 (for the year 2080)||Historical number of days per year w/ temp above 90||Historical average summer max temperature||Historical average summer min temperature|
|Hidalgo County, TX||1||213||132||95.9°F||74.3°F|
|Broward County, FL||2||212||9||90.2°F||72.0°F|
|Lee County, FL||3||211||8||90.8°F||72.3°F|
|Palm Beach County, FL||4||209||11||90.2°F||71.3°F|
|Maricopa County, AZ||5||205||139||101.3°F||72.5°F|
|Miami-Dade County, FL||6||204||10||89.8°F||72.6°F|
|Pima County, AZ||7||191||118||97.5°F||68.6°F|
|Orange County, FL||8||188||57||90.8°F||71.1°F|
|Hillsborough County, FL||9||185||51||89.7°F||71.6°F|
|Pinellas County, FL||10||175||0||89°F||73.9°F|
|Clark County, NV||11||168||117||95.9°F||69.2°F|
|Riverside County, CA||12||161||91||97.1°F||68.6°F|
|El Paso County, TX||13||159||94||93.8°F||65.8°F|
|Bexar County, TX||14||158||112||94.9°F||71.5°F|
|Kern County, CA||15||152||119||92.2°F||61.4°F|